Voting Behaviour - The 2017 General Election

Background:

• Having repeatedly stating there would be no election, she announced one on the 18^th April, people were surprised when she called a snap election to get a mandate for Brexit – Labour backed the election.

Key Issues:

• Were the polls accurate and would the Conservatives gain a landslide victory?
• Would the election be dominated by Brexit or leadership?
• What role would the smaller parties like UKIP play in the election?
• Was this even a gamble worth taking?

Key Policies:

• Most parties focused on Brexit. Conservatives promised to protect the NHS and cutting costs in other areas and to also have major reforms in education
• Labour would improve welfare and increase investment. They would also get rid of tuition fees whilst introducing 4 new bank holidays
• Lib Dems focused on Brexit because they wanted a second referendum. Social reforms were also announced which would lead to an increase in tax.
• UKIP ensured that Conservatives would commit to a hard Brexit. SNP was fighting for Scotland’s right in Brexit negotiations and another independence vote.

The Campaign:

• First few weeks were quiet as local elections were taking place
• May attended no TV debates, Corbyn said no and then did. The Prime Minister said that she and opposition had already debated in PMQs. At the start of the election, opinion polls put the Conservatives ahead.
• Dementia tax by the Conservatives was scrapped 24 hours after announced whilst commitments on grammar schools and a lock on pensions alienated some traditional Conservative voters.
• Lib Dems were focused on personal views of their leader, Tim Farron due to his views on gay rights.
• Labours Diane Abbot made some media errors whilst Corbyn was addressing large crowds in public spaces. In comparison, May was meeting small groups in unknown places.
• The whole campaign was side-tracked by two terrorist attacks, one in Manchester and one in London which means that most of the campaign was about security and all parties attacked the Conservatives and blamed the police cuts they introduced for the reason this was happening.

Impact:

• A return to traditional two-parties politics. Both parties increased the share of the vote by 5.5% for the Conservatives and 9.5% for the Labour party. UKIP was wiped out across the country winning no seats.

Party	Seats	Win/Loss	Share Of Vote %
Conservatives	318	-13	42.4%
Labour	262	+30	40.0%
Lib Dems	12	+4	7.4%
Plaid Cymru	4	+1	0.5%
SNP	35	-21	3.0%
Other	19	-1	6.7%

• Despite May gaining more votes than Cameron (6%), May lost 6 seats leading to a hung parliament the second in 7 years. She stayed on as a leader and as PM and went into a deal with the DUP. Corbyn sealed his role as party leader for Labour. He won more votes than Blair in 2005. UKIP share of the vote fell from 12.6% to 1.8% with no seats. Lib Dems gained 4 seats but votes fell by 0.5% and the leader resigned.

How Did People Vote?:

Geography	Rural England remained Conservatives, Labour gained in some areas e.g Canterbury Labour remained strong in urban areas and gained strength in London. SNP fell back in Scotland with most gains coming from the Conservative party Lib Dems gained in London and Scotland but lost in Yorkshire. UKIP was wiped out across the country.
Class	Conservatives made gains among C2s and DE. Labour gained votes among AB and the C1 meaning class was divided.
Gender	Female were equally voting for Conservatives and Labour. Male leaned towards Conservatives by 6%
Age	A person was 9% more likely to vote for Conservatives for every 10 years. Younger votes came out in full force and voted for Labour.

* No data for race

Voting Behaviour - The Changing Face of the Media

Role Of The Media:

• To report accurately on political events
• Provide a commentary on political events and policies
• Act as a check and to scrutinise the government
• Investigate controversies and bring them to the public attention

Criticisms Of The Media:

• Press has become overly partisan and they mock and ridicule rather than providing debate
• Creates national mood of cynicism towards politics by focusing on a scandal
• They focus on the leaders and the personalities by turning politicians into celebrities
• Make entertainment of politics
• Focus on crisis has led to negative point of view
• 24-hour news means minor issues are more prominent
• Online media has led to partisan and uninformed debate where the electorate are more aware but less engaged in the issues.
  

  
  

  Examples of the Media:

  
  

  • War Reporting – Jingoistic and patriotic reporting creates a good public impression of leaders
  • Sleaze – Reports of sex and corruption scandal with the Tories, made the public think they are “nasty party” and people said they had abused their time in power.
  • Bliar – Dodgy dossier and ‘sexing up’ the need for an Iraq war became a political scandal. David Kelly also died. Idea that the media said Blair was a liar and was a ‘poodle for President Bush’
  • Expenses – Daily Telegraph used the freedom of information to obtain the record of MPs expenses. Wrongful claims and abuse where one MP claimed expense on a duck house and a moat.
  • The EU - Fairly low down the list of priorities. Press reporting against the EU is now more prominent. The issue of the EU to immigration became popular and UKIP forced this issue.
  • Satire – Means a decline in popularity, programmes like the Thick Of It and Mock The Week are mocking politicians but they provide scrutiny for politicians. Politicians are trying to get more and more onto these kind of shows to show they aren’t.

Voting Behaviour - The 2010 General Election

Background:

• Gordon Brown could have called a Snap Election in 2007 when he became PM after Blair stepped down and he would have won but however, he didn’t call an election and a year later there was a worldwide recession happened and he got the blame for the UK’s fault in it.

Key Issues Surrounding The Campaign:

• How damaging the recession would be to the Labour Party
• Did Cameron do enough to detoxify the party
• The first UK election TV debate
• What role would UKIP and other minor parties do

Key Policies:

• Conservatives focused on saving the NHS and the need to see the economy through better management and savings
• Labour focused on Brown’s economic management and action going against the economic collapse
• Lib Dems focused on a compromise between the two parties

The Campaign:

• First TV debate in the history of UK general elections makes Clegg’s rise as he became popular when he kept on looking into the camera.
• The media created a three-party responding as three parties became popular
• Elements such as early morning conferences to allow news outlets to have the latest news in the mornings were abandoned by parties
• The financial crisis meant that little policies were actually created and all policies that were made was on how each party was going to make the economy better
• The media mainly support the Conservative party
• Conservative spent a lot of money on campaigning but Labour didn’t since they spent a lot in 2005 so they relied on activists to the campaign.
• The Campaign was seen for perhaps the first time through social media as in real time were commenting on Twitter during TV debates etc.

Party	Seats	Win/Loss	Share of Vote%
Conservatives	307	+109	36.19%
Labour	258	-98	29.0%
Liberal Democrats	57	+57	23.0%
Plaid Cymru	3	+1	0.4%
SNP	6	0	1.7%
Other	19	-3	9.6%

• This election meant it is now difficult not have TV debates – means elections are now more presidential
• Conservatives support fell by 2-3% which wasn’t enough for a majority
• Nick Clegg was seen as a good deputy prime minister and a peacetime coalition was put into place.

Geography	Labour gained votes in Scotland but lost in England and Wales. Conservatives gained votes in the South of England where they had mainly lost them in 1997
Class	Conservatives saw a strong swing from the C1 and C2 Labour gained a 10% swing from the DE
Gender	Men had a slight preference to the Conservative party Women preferred the Labour party and the Lib Dems
Age	Labour won the 18-24 whereas the Conservative party won everything else
Race	Conservatives won the white vote, Labour support with the BME was 68%. Lib Dem was almost equal to 20% white and 24% with BME

Voting Behaviour - The 1979 General Election

Background:

• In 1970 there was an election which Edward Heath (Conservative Party) lost
• Then the 3-day week started because Coal Miners went on strike as power was turned off
• In 1974, he called an election and Labour won. He gave miners the 28% pay rise they wanted
• For 5 years trade unions were perhaps more powerful then politicians going to the government for Beer and Sandwiches.
• In 1975, James Callahan took over
• In 1976 the UK was in a lot of debt and the IMF bailed us out
• In 1978/79 we had the “winter of discontent” where all people in the public sector went on strike
• We were known as the “sick man of Europe” as we were behind all other European countries
• In 1979, Labour got a vote of no confidence by one vote and a general election had to be called. Conservatives won and Mrs Thatcher won becoming the first female Prime Minister the UK ever had.
• She changed the number of people who could be outside on strike not allowing others to go into work
• Introduced the secret ballot for strikes to go ahead
• And you could only go one strike in one place if you had another job as well
• In 1985 she took on the coal miners and didn’t give them anything else – they later all went away.
• “Labour still isn’t working”

The Key Policies:

• Labour focused on its ability to deal with trade unions. Adopted a moderate financial course. Kept the left quiet.
• The Conservatives focused “Labour isn’t working”. The policy included: Right to buy scheme and tax cuts.

The Campaign:

• The mass media played a key role as Press conferences were timed to provide a mid-day news story, afternoon walkabouts where leaders met with ‘normal people’. Speeches were timed to catch the evening news.
• People didn’t like the adversarial model and leaders avoided attacking each other
• Campaign was much more presidential, media focused on the personality of the leaders
• Thatcher Factor was significant as she seemed to be more: Less experienced, less in touch, more extreme etc.
• Other parties were kept quieter due to the two main parties

Impact Of The Election:

• Incumbency Factor: So we had years of Labour rule so we wanted to change
• Campaign lead to a tighter election than the opinion polls suggested
• Results showed rejection of Labour and a clear victory for the Conservatives despite it being tight.

	Seats	Win/Loss	Share of Votes %
Labour	269	-50	37.0
Conservative	339	+62	43.9

• Campaign was dull and uninspiring
• Conservatives got votes off C2 (skilled workers)
• However, polices showed the “mood for change”
• Opinion polls showed a closing gap between the two parties which meant turnout increased which was good for the Conservative party
• Set the tone for presidential style election

Geography	All areas swung towards the Conservatives but that was mainly in the south
Class	Conservatives remained with AB and C1. Labour had C2 and DE but it swung in favour of the Conservatives 11% and 9%
Gender	Men were split even whereas women favoured the Conservatives
Age	Labour won 18-24, Conservatives won everything else. Labour support went down at 35-54 and the Liberal support only came from 35-54
Race	Lack of data for black and ethnic minorities group as it was very small part of the vote - 5%.

Additional Notes:

• Longest swing since WW2 (5%)
• It brought 18 years of Tory rule
• End of an era – Post War Consensus ended by Thatcher. It meant we had both public and private sectors.
• The Income policy was introduced
• Everyone wanted a pay rise – winter of discontent
• 1 and half million went on strike on the same day.

Voting Behaviour - Models of Voting Behaviour

• Judgemental Voting (rational choice voting): David Denver came up with the idea that voters will make a rational, logical decisions based on what is their best interests. Voters will usually be informed about the various options and will choose what is best for society as a whole.
• Issue Voting: When voters place one issue above all others and cast their vote based on this issue.
• Economic Issue: Bill Clinton said “It’s the economy stupid”: People want governing competency with the economy. They want a prosperous and successful economy. People want to see the economy doing well – hence votes for that party. In 2010 Gordan Brown was blamed for the credit crunch in 2008/09 which lead to him leaving office.
• “It's not the opposition that loses elections, it is the government who loses it” – due to performance if doing well then they get re-elected.

Factors Affecting Individual Voters:

• Policies: Voters consider policies presented in manifestos and make decisions based off which are best
• Key Issues: Parties focus on a clear message about one issue that will win them the election as voters are likely to vote for one issue
• Performance In Office: If the economy does well parties get re-elected, if not then they’re out of office.
• Leadership: Voters now think they’re voting for a Prime Minister rather than an MP, so leaders must now be likeable.
• Image: Voters make choices based on the perception of the party image
• Tactical Voting: Because of the first past the post system we have, if you know your party isn’t going to win, but you don’t want a certain party to win you vote for your second favourite.

Party Leaders:

Year:	Successful Party Leader:	Unsuccessful Party Leaders:
1964	Harold Wilson presented himself as the ‘man of the people’	Defeated former peer and aristocratic Sir Alex Douglas
1983	Margaret Thatcher, strong nationalist leader after winning the Falklands War	Defeated Michael Foot, considered scruffy. Wore the wrong jacket on Remembrance Sunday.
1992	John Major, calm and reassuring figure	Defeated, Neil Kinnock “Welsh windbag”
1997	Media savvy, Tony Blair	Defeated John Major who was considered weak
2010	Smartly presented and young David Cameron	Defeated ‘dithering’ Gordon Brown
2015	After 5 years of showing he was capable, Cameron ruined his PM legacy by calling an EU referendum if he was to win	Defeated Ed Miliband, poor media presence
2017	Austere and arrogant Theresa May who ran a poor campaign in 2017	Ideological Jeremy Corbyn suffered from party division.

• Spatial Leadership: A style of leadership where the Prime Minister relies on his inner circle of advisers rather than the Cabinet to make decisions.

The Role Of The Party Leader:

• Inspire party activities
• Appear prime minister
• Has positive media presence
• Appear strong in leading the party and if elected, the nation

Voting Behaviour - The Basis of Voting & Declining Turnout

• Turnout was at its highest in the 1950,60s and 70s.
• Lowest turnout was in 2001 at 50%
• However, in the recent election, turnout is steadily increasing.

Why Don’t People Vote:

• People don’t understand politics
• Loss of interest
• Lack of trust
• Disconnect between public and politics
• Uneducated voters
• People feel detached
• Apathy (Can’t be bothered to vote)
• Hepathy (People who don’t want anything to change)
• Decline in civic culture (it is someone’s job to vote)
• The parties have policies for the grey voter
• Decline in partisan alignment
• Alternate ways to participle in politics (joining a pressure group)
• Politicians are self-centered (“all the same”)
• The voting system is wrong and should be changed
• Devolution effect
• No clear blue water between the parties – muddy water

Voting-Based Off Gender:

• Women tended to vote Conservatives as they promised economy stability
• Now women tend to vote Labour
• All parties are trying to do more get more women into politics
• Some say women actually shape how/what policies are introduced in a party
• In 2015 the percentage of women who voted Conservatives was higher than Labour (37-33%)
• Men tend to vote for parties who will after nuclear weapons.

Voting-Based Off Age:

• Age is now a key predictable factor in elections
• Young voters tend to lean left, the older you get the more right you generally get
• The younger you are the less likely you are to vote
• An ageing population means elders are staying alive so more vote for the Conservatives since you tend to lean to the right.
• 70% of young people (18-25 years) voted for Labour and only 4% for the Conservatives.
• At 47 years you tend to switch between voting for Labour and the Conservatives
• Parties should aim policies to the grey voters

Ethnicity In Voting:

• White voters tend to lean right, whilst ethnic minorities tend to lean to the left
• The ‘cricket test’ in the 1990s showed that ethnic minorities don’t really care about the country since they were asked which cricket team they supported and most ethnic minorities said the country they previously lived in and not England
• Most ethnic minorities live in towns so they’re working class so they’ll tend to vote for Labour
• The Conservative party is known for being slightly racist
• The Conservative party claimed “white fright” and the changing nature of the UK so less ethnic minorities vote.
• In the UK most people are white (87%) and they vote so ethnic minorities feel like their voices aren’t being heard.
• In 2015 ethnic minorities voted 65% for Labour and only 23% for the Conservatives.

Voting Behaviour - Key Terms for Voting Behaviour & General Key Terms

Key Terms:

• Queen’s Speech: The Queen sets out the government plans for the next 12 months but it is written by the Prime Minister.
• Act of Parliament: The names given to a law
• Royal Assent: The final stage of the bill passing through Parliament where it must be signed by the Queen/head of state.
• Bill: What a law is called before it becomes a law.
• Manifesto: A booklet of promises released before elections showing what a party will do if they win.
• Parliamentary Majority: A majority of 2 – having more than half the seats in Parliament
• Parliamentary Plurality: Having most the seats but not half.
• By-election: A single consistency having an election if the previous MP either, died, retired or resigned.
• General Election: A nationwide election usually held every 5 years.
• Coalition: More than 2 parties working together with the party who got the most seats to gain a majority.
• Safe Seat: A constituency in which a party is almost guaranteed to win
• Mandate: Having an overall majority where you can pass the bills you want to.
• Turnout: Percentage of people who vote.
• Swing: Percentage of vote that went from one party to another
• Hung Parliament: Not having a majority in a general election
• Constituency: The geographical location represented by an MP, around 70k per consistency
• Landslide victory: Winning by over 100 seats e.g Tony Blair
• Electoral Register: List of people who are eligible to vote

Why Did Traditional Labour Supporters Vote UKIP In The 2015 Election:

• People felt like Labour had forgotten about the northen part of the UK but UKIP didn’t so everyone voted UKIP as Labour hadn’t lived in the north and seen the issues which were vital in the 2015 election but UKIP did

Does The Class System Still Matter:
Yes:	No:
Issues of tax and benefits remain a key distinction between the two main parties	Major issues such as immigration show a class division.
Voters identify with a party that goes with there class	Size of role of working class has declined in the UK by more than a half
Geographical voting trends reflect wealth and class	improved property ownership and improved education make it harder to categorise class
Class inequality and lack of social mobility is a major concern for votes	Successful parties appealed to a wide range of people in the modern day and not just a certain class type.