US Elections - Differences Between US and UK Elections

Why Is It So Difficult To Compare UK & USA Elections:

• There is no UK equivalent to a US Presidential election. UK elections are for the national legislature (HOCs) whilst the US General Election is the election of the POTUS.

Different Voting Systems In The USA And The UK.
USA:	FPTP in local, national and federal state systems with one-member constituency
	PR In The Northeast for city elections.
UK:	FPTP: HOC, local elections
	AMS: Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, Greater London Assembly
	STV: NI Assembly, local elections in Scotland and NI
	AV: Local by-elections in Scotland
	SV: London mayoral elections

Why Do Voting Systems Matter:

• They have an effect on party systems
• Clearly affect the make up of legislatures especially in terms of gender, political and ethnic representation
• Might affect the way legislators behave in office
• Single member constituency enhance the link between legislators and constituents
• Could have a knock-on effect on government formation.

Daniele Caramnai’s Quote:

• “There is no denying that electoral systems can make a significant difference to a country’s politics. By making a country’s system more (or less) proportional by raising (or lowering) the threshold of representation, by giving voters greater (or less) power to exercise choice among one party’s candidates, we know what consequences are likely to follow”

Possible Reforms Of The Electoral College:

• Direct Election: In 2016 it was just the 2^nd time in five elections that the White House was awarded to someone who had lost the popular vote. This made more want to ditch the EC however by removing it there would be more candidates which would mean that the POTUS would be likely to be elected without a majority over 50%. And this requires a Constitutional amendment.
• Congressional District System: In Maine & Nebraska one EC vote is given for each Congressional District (how HOR members are elected) to the winner and two to the Congressional District. This is however more confusing in an American society where many do not understand the current system. It is also not proportional and some argue that it makes little difference to who is actually elected as POTUS
• Proportional System: Allocate each EC vote in each state proportional to the popular vote then there would be a more equal amounts of EC votes. This would render the electors unnecessary as the result is determined by maths. This would be fairer to the 3^rd parties but no one would get a clear majority above 50%, doing this would also throw the election into Congress.

US Elections - Propositions, Referendums & Recall Elections

Propositions (Initiatives):

• Propositions (Initiatives): An electoral device by which citizens of a state can place proposed laws (and in some states proposed constitutional) amendments on the state ballot
• Examples are minimum wage increases in Washington
• Direct Proposition: Proposals that qualify go directly on the ballot
• Indirect Proposition: Submitted to the state legislature which must decide what the next action is. It may reject or amend or it may even go onto the ballot if the state legislature rejects it. But they can submit an competing proposal on the ballot along with the original.

Rules Of A Proposition:

• Riled with the designated state official
• Reviewed for conformance with state legal requirements
• Given a formal title and brief summary for the inclusion on the ballot paper
• Circulated to gain the required number of signatures from registered voters
• Submitted to state officials for verification of signatures.
• Number of signatures required depends on the state. In Alaska it is 10% whilst in California it just 5% but 10% if it is a constitutional amendment.
• Once it gets onto the ballot paper, it must gain a majority.
• Of late, only half of propositions are approved.

Referendums:

• An electoral device by which voters effectively veto a bill passed by their state legislature.
• Major difference from an proposition is that the referendum follow something done by the state legislature already. In some states a referendum is required to pass a bill.
• 24 states go further than this and have a provision called a popular referendum, New Mexico does this.
• If the state legislature passes a law that voters do not approve of, they may gather signatures to demand referendum on the law. There is a 90-day period to do this in.
• Once enough signatures are gained, the new law appears on a ballot for a popular vote.
• Not in law until passed, if not passed then it is vetoed – a popular veto.

Recalls: 

• An electoral device by which voters in a state can remove an elected official from office before their terms has expired.  
• Seen as a direct form of impeachment  
• 19 states have this feature, but it has only been used three times.  
• The most recent one was in 2012 when Scott Walker in Wisconsin in which he beat his democrat opponent Tom Barrett by 53% to 46%.  
• It was trigged by those opposing Walker's implementation of changes to state employee pension schemes.  
• Clearly a device which increases democratic accountability not just at election time but at any time in the incumbents' term.  
• Some see it as demeaning because voters have 'buyers regret' - changing one's mind after short-term dissatisfaction.  
• If recalls happened frequently enough, it would destabilise the governing process 
• Many believe that short of a crime, voters should live with the consequences of the votes they have case.  
• Since 2012, recall efforts have been tried in Oregon, Arizona, Michigan, Alaska and Kansas but none have come to a vote.  

US Elections - Congressional Elections

• Class 1: 23 Democrats, 8 Republican – 2018
• Class 2: 21 Republican, 12 Democrats – 2020
• Class 3: 22 Republicans, 12 Democrats – 2022

When Do Congressional Elections Take Place:

• HOR: Every 2 years
• Senate: Every 6 years but 1/3 elected in classes every 6 years.

Constitutional Requirements:

• HOR: Must be 25 and live in the USA for at least 7 years
• Senate: Must be 30 and live in the USA for at least 9 years

How Do Incumbents Fair:

• There is a high number of re-election for incumbents between 85-97%
• The number had decreased but in recent years has increased back to the normal figure again

Why:

• Providing Constituency Services: When you do something for one constituting, it means you have means and you can have the experience to represent lots of people.
• Name Recognition: An incumbent has levels of seniority vs a challenger because of the vast amount of committees they are a part of.
• More Funding: On average an incumbent has $12.8 million to spend on campaigning whilst a challenger has $1.8 million

What Is The Coattails Effect:

• When an extremely popular candidate at the top of the electorate ticket carries candidates of lower office with him/her into office.
• Has not happened much however in 2016, Trump helped many Republican senators get re-elected in states where they were facing defeats. 16 more seats were gained than what was predicted.

What Is Happening To Split-Ticket Voting:

1. A state supporting candidates for POTUS but at the same election vote for a senator of a different party. In 2004, Nevada voted for a Republican POTUS but for a Democrat Senator. In 2016 however, the same state did not vote like this, this shows that partisanship is increasing across the USA.
2. A congressional district voting supporting one POTUS candidate from one party but at the same election vote for a house party from another party. Straight-ticket voting is increasing. In 2016, Minnesota gave 62% of the vote to Trump whilst giving 54% of the vote to a Democratic senator.

What Are The Implications Of Fewer Competitive Districts:

1. Much harder for party control of the house to change hands. In 2016 the Democrats needed 30 seats to take back control of the house but only 43 were competitive giving the Democrats a very slim chance of gaining control of the house again.
2. Members who represent safe party are much more likely to vote in line with them than seeking deals with the opposing party. Sanford Bishop won the vote in Georgia 61% Democrat vs 39% Republican therefore it made sense for him to support the Democrat party line.

2 Reasons For The POTUS’s Party To Lose Seats:

• If the POTUS has had a positive effect for his party in the POTUS election, 2 years later it is likely that his party will now devoid it and the party will do less well. In 2010 this happened
• Voters now see mid-term elections as chance to express their disappointment or disapproval with the POTUS after 2 or 6 years in office. In 2006, voters expressed their disappointment with Bush’s failure to successfully conclude the military operation in Iraq.

US Elections - The Electoral College

• It was invented because the Founding Fathers didn’t want the popular vote to have ‘tyranny of a majority’ for whoever was elected could be too powerful because they had an massive majority.

What is The Electoral College:

• The institution established by the FF to indirectly elect the POTUS and VPOTUS. Electors cast their votes in the state capitals.

How Does It Work:

• Each states get a number of votes based on the representation that state has in Congress – so 2 electors per state because each state has 2 Senate members and the rest come from the HOR.
• Generally to win the presidency, you must get 270 electoral college votes.
• The popular vote is counted and whichever candidate wins in that state, the electors will generally vote for them – this is however a convention
• The representatives never meet, they meet a few weeks after the general election and cast their votes to the incumbent VPOTUS, then he announces it to a panel. In 2000, Al Gore announced that he had been defeated.

What Happens If There Is A Tie:

• A tie is generally announced when the electoral college votes are tied at 269-269.
• POTUS is elected by the HOR with the more electoral college votes, the winner must get a an absolute majority of 26/50
• VPOTUS is elected by the Senate with most EC votes, winner must get a 51/100 majority

Strengths & Weaknesses Of The Electoral College:
Strengths:	Weaknesses:
Preserves The Voice Of The Smaller Populated States: Some believe that if there was no EC than those inhabitants votes would become useless.	Small States Are Over-Represented: Some thing this is also a weakness so California has 1 EC vote per 713,000 people whilst Wyoming has 1 EC vote for every 195,000
Tends To Promote A Two-Horse Race: The POTUS is a national symbol, so they should receive more than 50% of the popular vote. In the last 7 election, only three POTUS have won with more than half of the votes.	Winner-Takes-All Distorts The Result: In 1996 Bill Clinton won 49% of the popular vote but over 70% of the EC votes. There has been an increase in candidates losing the popular vote but winning the EC vote.
	Unfair To 3rd Parties: In 1992, Ross Perot won 18.9 of the popular but no EC votes. 3rd candidates do better just in one region
	Rogue Electors: An elector who casts their vote for someone other than the one who won the popular vote in that state. 7/13 elections since 1968 have seen this happen. This happened more in 2016.
	POTUS & VPOTUS Of Different Parties: At the beginning parties did not matter as much as they do today but in 2000 the HOR could have chosen a Republican POTUS whilst Senate chose a Democrat VPOTUS. Known as ‘EC deadlock’

US Elections - An Introduction to the Stages of the Election Cycle

When Do Presidential General Elections Occur:

• Fixed term elections every 4 years
• Even if the POTUS dies, there is no special election, the Vice President will simply take over and complete the term

Process Of A Presidential Election:
Stage:	Functions:	Occurs:
1) Invisible Primary	Candidates Announcement	Calendar year before the election
	Increasing Name Recognition
	Fundraising
	Intra-Party Debates
2) Primaries & Caucuses	Show popular support for candidates	January/February – June
	Choose delegates to attend national party conventions
3) Choosing Vice Presidential Candidate (s)	Presidential candidates announce choice of running mate	Some days/weeks before convention
4) National Party Conventions	Confirm presidential and vice-presidential candidates	Usually July/August lasting for four days
	Approve party platforms
	Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidates.
5) General Election Campaign	Campaign between the various candidates of various parties	September – 1st week of November
6) Election Day	Registered voters go to the polls (although many may have participated in early voting)	Tuesday after the first Monday in November
7) Electoral College Voting	Electors vote in their states capitals to choose POTUS & VPOTUS	Monday after the second Wednesday in December.

Constitutional Requirements:

• Must be a natural born American citizen
• One must be at least 35 years old, Roosevelt was 42 but he wasn’t elected (previous POTUS was assassinated), the youngest elected POTUS was John Kennedy who was 43.
• Must reside in the USA for at least 14 years.

Extra-Constitutional Requirements:

• Not in the Constitution but seen to be “required”

1. Political Experience: It is said that to become POTUS you should have some form of political experience, this could be as a Congressmen or a governor. Trump is one of few POTUS who has no political experience.
2. Major Party Endorsement: Should be chosen as one of the two main parties candidates, independent candidates generally don’t do well.
3. Personal Characteristics: There is a greater chance of you becoming POTUS if you are a white male, and if you are married, so to avoid marital infidelity. Obama went past this as he was the USAs first black POTUS.
4. Ability To Raise Large Amounts Of Money: Hard to get the cash for a campaign, you have to be willing to spend lots of money for an unsuccessful campaign such as Clinton in 2016.
5. Oratorical Skills: Should look good and speak well on TV. Trump was seen as being good at the latter.
6. Sound And Relevant Policy: Yes, style over substance is needed but voters quickly learn about the polices so they need to be relevant and practical to the country.

5 TV Debate Examples Important To Voting Behaviour:

1. 1960 – Nixon Vs Kennedy: America’s first TV debate. Radio listeners thought Nixon won as he sounded better but on TV, he was seen to be sweating and looked uncomfortable. Whilst, TV viewers thought Kennedy won due to his style over substance approach.
2. 1984 – Reagan Vs Mondale: Reagan was not much older than Mondale but had the least amount of experience of the two. Upon the asking of his old age, he used his acting skills and made a joke about Mondale’s experience prompting laughter not only from the audience but from Mondale himself.
3. 1988 – W Bush (Senior) Vs Dukakis: When the hard-hitting host asked Dukakis if he would oppose the death penalty if his wife was raped and murdered, he replied “No, I have always opposed the death penalty”. Prompting many to argue that the question was not fair to ask since it was an emotional response. But some argued that Dukakis’s answer was unusual as he said “no” when he should have ridiculed the host for asking such a question.
4. 1992 - W Bush (Senior) Vs Clinton: Bush was asked a question from the audience on how the national debt was affecting him, he did not understand the question and got annoyed. Whereas, Clinton stood up, approached the audience and answered the question and how he was going to solve it.
5. 2000 – W Bush (Junior) Vs Al Gore: The first split screen TV debate in America with TV cameras fixed on the two candidates, the nation could see every movement and sound made by the two candidates. Unfortunately, this did not work in Al Gore’s favour as he kept on sighing and groaning and American audiences across the nation did not like this.

What Is The Invisible Primary:

• Period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries.
• Candidates are chosen by ordinary voters, not much to see hence the term “invisible”
• This stage is mainly played through the media as candidates hope to be mentioned as a serious candidate from news outlets.
• There is a high connection between who wins the invisible primary and party nomination.

What Are Presidential Primaries & Caucuses:

• Primary: A state-based election to choose party candidates. Shows support among ordinary voters.
• Caucuses: A state-based meeting to choose a party candidate for presidency. They attract few people and turnout is low.
• 2 Functions: Show popularity of presidential candidates and to choose delegates to go the national party convention.
• They run under state law.
• You can have superdelegates who are congressmen who are free to vote for whoever they want whereas regular delegates vote under what the state voted.

What Happens On “Super Tuesday”:

• A set Tuesday in February or March where a set number of states vote in primaries and caucuses.
• Done to stop the south attempts to raise the profile of certain candidates
• New Hampshire is the first.
• Sets the tone for who could be a party nomination.

What Are Open & Closed Primaries:

• Closed Primary: A primary in which any registered Democrats and Republicans members can vote in their own primary e.g Republican members can only vote in the Republican primary.
• Open Primary: A primary in which any registered voters can vote in either party primary

What Are Proportional Primaries And Winner Takes All Primaries:

• Proportional Primaries: Presidential primaries in which delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get
• Most states set a threshold, which is minimum percentage of votes that a certain must receive in order to get any of that states delegates. This is usually 10-15%.
• Winner-Takes-All Primaries: Presidential primaries permitted only by the Republicans, in which whoever gets the most votes win all that’s states delegates.
• Whoever gets the most votes will win all the state delegates, e.g Trump won the Arizona Republican primary in 2016 and this meant that he received all 58 delegates.

What Is The Incumbency Effect & Does It Always Apply:

• Incumbent: A person who currently holds an office, in this case, an elective office. They can benefit from an advantage often called the 'incumbency effect'.
• Incumbent POTUS are usually re-elected by their party so there is no need for a primary such as Florida in 2012.
• However, some POTUS's struggle with this due to opposition from within their own party therefore the primaries are more closely fought for example, Gerald Ford faced a strong challenge from Ronald Reagan (when he was governor)
• When a primary is usually closely fought when an incumbent POTUS is in, it usually leads to them losing the general election. This is because the POTUS is now viewed as 'damaged goods' from not only within his own party but from the public.

Voter Turnout In Primaries:

• Since the late 1960s, turnout has greatly increased this is partly down to more states holding more primaries.
• In 2016 around 61 million people participated in the 37 primaries. This was only 29% of the total voting age population.
• Turnout tends to decrease at a re-election but increases again when the incumbent POTUS leaves office at the end of his 8 year spell.
• Turnout tends to be high in the first few states which hold primaries and tends to be low in the states that hold them last.
• Turnout is generally low in states where a caucuses is held.

Factors Affecting Turnout In Primaries:

1. Demography: Stephen Wayne found that better educated and higher income as well as older members of the electorate are much more likely to vote than their less education and poorer people counterpart. For example, North Carolina's republican primary had ¾ of voters over the age of 45 with those earning more as well as being educated more whilst only 6% were 24 or younger.
2. Type Of Primary: Open primaries are more likely to attract a higher turnout. Especially true when only one party has a competitive race such as in 2012. In 2012, the republican closed primary only saw 2 states have an increase in turnout such as New York which went down 71%.
3. How Competitive The Nomination Race Is: In 2008 and 2016 when both parties had a competitive nomination race, turnout was significantly higher than in 2004 and 2012
4. Whether The Nomination Has Been Decided Or Not: Primaries held earlier than others are more likely to attract more voters whereas primaries held towards the end of the cycle tend to have the lowest turnout. Super Tuesday tends to bring a higher turnout as well which was seen in the 2008 republican primary where they were still undecided which brought 640,000 votes.

Positives & Weaknesses Of The New Nomination Process:
Positives:	Weaknesses:
Increased Participation: When the new nomination process arrived, the figure of voting increased in the millions to at least 35 million compared to 11.7 million in the old system	Widespread Voter Apathy & Boredom: In years when there is an incumbent POTUS, turnout is low, when there is no incumbent POTUS, turnout is high e.g Clinton.
Increased Choice: In 1968 there were only 5 candidates but this has increased to 22 in 2016	Voters Are Unrepresentative Of The Voting Age Population: Certain types of candidates, especially those who are more ideological candidates tend to do better in the nomination process such as Bernie Sanders.
Open To Outsiders: The process is opened to outsiders who tend not have political experience such as Jimmy Carter. The primary was the was only Donald Trump could get known in 2016	Process Is Far Too Long: Some argue that the process takes too much time and so, potential candidates do not announce they are running 60-40 days before the first New Hampshire Primary.
A Gruelling Race: An demanding test for a demanding job. Should have physical resilience as shown from Paul Tsongas who had cancer but a lighter schedule than this rivals.	Process Is Very Expensive: There is an argument that candidates need to raise a large of money to start their campaigns early. Clinton had raised $275 million by the start of the first primary.
	Process Is Too Dominated By The Media: With the introduction of intra-party debates both before and after the primaries with the media giving ratings to candidates before and after, this can hurt a potential candidates.
	Superdelegates: Can be weak as they go against the will of the electorate such as voting Clinton in 2016 when Sanders had won.

What Do Presidential Candidates Look For When Choosing A Vice Presidential Candidates:

• Before the VP was announced during the party convention but in 1984, Walter Mondale broke with tradition and announced his before the party convention. This set a precedent and since then, all other candidates have followed suit
• Balanced Ticket: A paring of presidential and vice-presidential candidates on a ticket who attract support for different reasons, thereby making the broadest appeal to voters. This could be either by geographical location or similarities in POTUS candidates such as Joe Biden who had served in the Senate along with Obama.
• Potential In Government: Might choose depending on what they bring to the White House. Trump did this in 2016, as he chose someone (Mike Pence) who was more experienced than Trump in politics.
• Party Unity: This is rarely used, but usually done to unite the party after the primary. Reagan did this after he won the primary but then chose H Bush (Senior) as his running mate. The problem with this is that the running mate may be incompatible politically.

Formal & Informal Functions Of The National Party Convention:

Formal:

• Choosing The Party’s Presidential Candidate: In theory they should be chosen in a roll-call vote in which delegates announce which candidates they wish to vote for. However today, most delegates arrive to the NPC as ‘committed delegates’ as they know who they are going to vote for. To win you must get an absolute majority, if there no majority then a brokered convention occurs when delegates can vote for whoever they want.
• Choosing The Party’s Vice Presidential Candidates: Before you would announce it at the NPC but you do it beforehand, therefore this convention has been lost since 1988
• Deciding The Party Platform: The policy the presidential candidate will put in place if he wins. Decided under the direction of the Platform Committee who hold hearings across the country. Once this is done the National Party Committee agree to it and it is presented to delegates so they can decide on who to vote for.

Informal:

• Promoting Party Unity: Seen as the most important function, as the primaries turn into bitter personal battles and party wounds are healed as divided parties generally do not do well. This had to be done in 2016 when Sanders and Clinton clashed, it was solved when Sanders endorsed Clinton.
• Enthusing The Party Faithful: Vital that the party is faithful to the candidate in all 50 states, they need to organise meetings, phone calls etc. The NPC allows for an opportunity to enthuse the party’s faithful through speeches such as Michelle Obama speeches in 2016
• Enthusing The Ordinary Voters: As ordinary voters are not in the NPC, this must be done in TV. This is done via the acceptance speech on the last night of the NPC. Since most voters pay little attention to the primaries, voters tend to tune into the NPC once candidates and policy has been chosen to see their first serious look at the party
• Post-Convention ‘Bounce’: After the NPC, the polls instantly show the ratings of candidates to see how well they are doing. Bounce is the difference between the polls before the convention for candidates and after, the average bounce is usually 6%. In 2016, Trump scored well-below average bounce.

What Are Matching Funds, PACS & Super PACS:

• Matching Funds: Between 1976-2008, campaigns were funded through federal money administered by the FEC and this is given to candidates as long as they meet certain criteria and agree to certain limitations. In 2008, Obama refused the matching funds which in effect left him free from following the criteria and as a result was able to spend more than his opponent. Then in 2012, both candidates refused matching funds which was the first time both refused. And then in 2014 Obama signed a bill removing matching funds.
• PACs (Political Action Committee): A political committee that raises limited amounts of money and spends these contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates. They are independent expenditures on their own. They give money to candidates they support or spend money against they oppose. Most represent businesses groups or ideological groups.
• Super PACs: A political committee that makes independent expenditures but does not make contributions to candidates. They spend money to achieve their desired objectives but they are forbidden from making direct contributions to a candidate.

How Significant Are TV Debates & What Are The Rules Of Thumb:

• First debate was held in 1960 but first TV debate was held another 16 years later
• The non-partisan commission are in charge of all debates, different formats are part of the debates and TV audiences were introduced in 1976. They occur between late September and mid-October.
• Town hall style debates were also introduced where candidates face the audience sitting on bar stools. But then the split screen style was introduced and it has been kept ever since.
• The only time a 3^rd candidate was allowed Ross Perot, in 1980, Carter did not turn up so it was two challengers vs Reagan. Reagan only showed up so he could debate Carter.

How Important Are The TV Debates:

• One of the rarest times the candidates speak to voters without a filter. So generally, they are important.
• Carter vs Reagan in 1980 was seen to change the voting behaviour of the electorate as candidates were asked to make closing statements. Carter made meaningful remarks but they were forgotten when Reagan asked voters rhetorical questions which he would be negative “Are America better off then they were 4 years ago?” And support fell for Carter paving the way for Reagan to win.
• In 2016 when voters were asked if the debates were important after a record number watched the Trump vs Clinton debate, only 64% said they were important. Clinton got a narrow lead over Trump after the debate yet still lost the election which made people ask what the importance of them was.

Debate Rules Of Thumb:

• Style Over Substance: Al Gore sighed which made popular primetime TV shows see the funny side, whilst Trump made abrasive tone, almost bordering on rude when he kept on shouting “No, you’re wrong”. “It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law of our country” “Because you’d be in jail” – Was seen as rude to Trump.
• Verbal Gaffes: Saying something wrong can be costly, Carter said he and his 10-year-old daughter had spoken about nuclear weapons which prompted the papers to post comical pictures. Trump couldn’t accept what he would do if he lost but this wasn’t costly as his supporters were used to this
• Sounds Bites: Many voters do not watch the full debate, they tend to look at the news the morning afterwards for the “highlights” e.g Obama vs Romney “..the social policy of the 1950s…”
• Debates Are Difficult For Incumbents: Incumbents have a record to defend and they could have words thrown at them 4 years ago. They also start the campaign as the front runner hence expectations are higher of them. Incumbents go into debates rusty as they are not used to debating e.g Obama one appearance on TV debates since 2008 vs Romney 19 debates before the first TV debate.

What Are October Surprises:

• An event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate leaving that candidate with little or time to recover before Election Day.
• First seen in 1972 when Nixon announced the war was over in Vietnam and this went against McGovern’s anti-war campaign.
• Most recently, Hurricane Sandy bought flooding to many states. Affecting the states Romney would win, this bought Obama an advantage.
• And the investigation into Clinton’s emails was reopened just 9 days before the election which swung voters into Trump’s favour.

What Is Election Day Like:

• Americans finally get to the polls on the Tuesday after the first Monday.
• Many Americans have already voted, making the last few days of the campaigns less significant. If an October surprise happens within the last week of voting, it usually doesn’t make much of a huge difference because many have already voted.
• Turnout peaked in 1960 election at 67% but turnout dropped in the next 5 elections to 54.7%. In 2008, turnout increased but this has gone back to 50% in recent years.
• Results of the election are usually decided in the swing states who do not know as some states will always win Democrat and some will always vote Republican. Ohio has voted for the winner since 1964

What Difference Does The Incumbency Factor Make:

• Only 9 incumbent POTUS have lost a re-election
• Trying to defeat an incumbent POTUS is hard unless the party is divided. This was the case for Carter & H Bush (Senior)
• Being an incumbent POTUS brings its advantages, as POTUS does not have spend much on the primaries compared to a challenger spending vast amounts of money just to win the nomination.
• Significant that all incumbent POTUS who have lost, have lost in times when America’s economy was not doing well. Carter added insult to injury when his foreign policy was darkened when 52 Americans were held hostage in Iran.
• Challengers face an uphill battle as they are battling when an incumbent of whom American knows
• It is also worth noting that when a POTUS has to leave after his two terms, the opposition party usually wins the election. The only time this has not happened was in 1877 and 1990. Clinton should have known the election was lost before she even began!