Carbon Cycle - Future Planetary Risks, Adaptation and Mitigation Schemes

Future of Global Warming:

• CO2 emissions are still rising. If we continue to use as much then the temperature will hit 5.
• Need to hit the negative global emissions
• Australia is less developed in rural places. Africa will be less developed in urban places
• Climate change may become a runway problem. The tipping point could see positive feedback cycles leading to an uncontrollable GHG release.
• Thermohaline circulation will decrease as less phytoplankton cannot reach the deep ocean

Management Options:
Adaptation: Humans change to improve resilience and reduce vulnerability	Mitigation: Actions to reduce GHG emissions
Water Conservation & Management: Collecting rainwater to adapt to more droughts and evaporation	Carbon Taxation: Tax on carbon emissions.
SMART Irrigation: Apps measure when irrigation is needed. Adapt scarcity of water from drought	Renewable Energy Switching: Using more renewable or radical energies
Land Use Planning: Don’t build on floodplains. Adapt to more frequent rainfall	Energy Efficiency: Energy rating on appliances
Solar Radiation: Mirrors in space: Adapt to increased CO2 emissions	Afforestation: China planting more trees
	Carbon Capture Storage: Storing carbon in the ocean.
	ALL OF THESE REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS

Agreements:

• Paris Agreement
• Kyoto Protocol
  • None of these work because they are non-binding, some countries do follow them but those who don’t use more.
  • They need to be binding e.g fines if not followed.

Carbon Cycle - Human Well-being & Impacts

Forest Loss Implicating Human Wellbeing:

• 350 million people live in tropical rainforests
• Affects the carbon cycle and the atmosphere. Affects the water cycle with more rainfall and flooding in and out of the forest.
• Affects: Biodiversity, medicines and tourism. 
  • Can also see the environmental kuznet curve model (diagram can be seen on the internet)
   

Global Consumer Attitudes:

• Consumers are becoming more ‘green.’ Fairtrade products are becoming socially sustainable.
• Organic product food sales are increasing as consumers have concerns about pesticides and chemicals that affect the environment.
• More development level tends to equate with greener consumerism.
• 66 billion trees planted in China. Known as the “Great Green Wall”. Will take more than 50 years to combat.

Temperature Affecting Evaporation Roles:

• Climate change will cause an increase in precipitation by 2080
• Surface water stores will be depleted by 2081
• Peak average discharge in a river will also decrease by 2099
• Cryosphere stores will shrink as more ice and snow melts. Fluxes will also reduce e.g Ganges

Threats to Ocean Health:

• Loss of coral reefs will cost $1 trillion. Will affect human wellbeing through tourism and fishing and it will also act as a flood and erosion protection barrier.

The Philippines Coral Reef:

CO2 Increase:	CO2 Diffusion:
Warmer atmosphere and oceans leading to coral reef death and ecosystem collapse.	Lower pH leading to ocean acidification, coral bleaching and death of fish
Leading To…
Loss of tourism, revenue, reduction in food security, flood risk.
Areas that are vulnerable and at risk from these impacts will be affected more.

Carbon Cycle - Alternate Fuels

Energy or Technology:	Renewable, Recyclable or Radical:	Example:	Economic Evaluation:	Social Evaluation:	Environmental Evaluation:	Political Evaluation:
Nuclear:	Recyclable	Hinkley Point	Expensive	Socially acceptable?	Waste needs to be disposed	Germany has banned it – sets the path for bad perception
Wind:	Renewable	Offshore wind at the Holderness Coast	Still more costly	Not in my backyard	Reduces emissions	Improves energy mix for the country
Solar:		Homes	Very expensive	Bad perception	Intermittent	Government funding
Biofuels:	Recyclable	Brazil	Still in trial period		Food security lowers	Only works in LDCs
Carbon Capture & Storage:	Radical	Key Players Needed			Reduces emissions	Needs to be a developed country
Hydrogen Fuel Cells:
Electric Vehicles:		Tesla

Positives & Negatives of Nuclear Power:
Positives:	Negatives:
Recyclable as can reuse uranium fuel	Expensive to build
No CO2 emissions from fuel	Technology not accessible by LDCs
Energy mix varies leading to a security benefit as a different electric source	Waste is very radioactive for thousands of years (cost to repair any damage)
	Disasters can occur e.g Chernobyl

Positives & Negatives of Renewable:
Positives:	Negatives:
Infinite energy sources e.g solar in Sahara	Still more costly than other conventional fuels
Replaces all issues of pollution and safety concerns from nuclear or fossil fuels	Intermittent
Energy mix and security improves e.g UK Wind Power	Batteries needed to store energy
Short pathways from production area to demand	Not in my backyard

BioFuels:

• Recyclable as can be made from waste organic matter
  • Global production is increasing
• Includes bioethanol from plants like sugarcane (Brazil)
• Fuel can be used in transport for vehicles instead of products from crude oil

Benefits:	Disadvantages:
Carbon footprint generally lower than coal	Not carbon neutral
Grown in countries without oil reserves	Raises price of food
Aids agricultural and the economy	Destruction to rainforests
Increases energy mix and security	Damages food security and the environment
	Cannot meet demand

Radical Technology:

Carbon Capture & Storage:

• Traditional fossil fuel use in transport and energy production produces 9.7 GtC/year (billion tonnes of carbon).
• Mitigate climate change by reducing carbon dioxide in atmosphere by using radical technologies
• Carbon capture and storage collects CO2 from power-stations (e.g. gas or coal fired electric power-stations) and ‘stores’ it so not in the atmosphere

Benefits:	Disadvantages:
Could work and be a good solution to reduce emissions	Very technical and difficult
Still allows for continued use for little fossil fuels	Unproved as it is still in the research period
	Expensive
	Could go wrong.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells & Electric Vehicles:

• Hydrogen fuel cells and electric vehicles produce no emissions of carbon dioxide when in operation

Positives:	Negatives:
No carbon emissions	Still more expensive
Stops mining of fossil fuels and biofuels	Still has a big carbon footprint from waste and manufacturing
Socially acceptable	Poor infrastructure e.g charging station

Carbon Cycle - Energy Mix & Fossil Fuels

Mismatch Of Energy:

• Includes: Gas, oil and coal
• Mined from the ground known as ‘reserves’ e.g drilling. Known as a conventional oil i.e cheapest and easiest way to get more accessible fossil fuels reserves.
• Large reserves in Russia, USA, China and OPEC Countries (Iran)
• Japan and France have the least amount of FF

Reliance & Access:

• In 2015, the most energy production was that of FF like gas, oil and coal.
• Russia using natural gas, coal and petroleum
• Access to FF reserves is a coincidence of geological history and international boundaries
• Some countries have more FF sources than others. Other countries have none.
• Runs out over time as gas with the UK will become abundant due to the North Sea oil and gas
• Remaining will increase concentration in the Middle East over the next 30 years.

Energy Pathways:

• Any process or infrastructure which primary or secondary energy is transported across e.g pipes, national grid.
• Disruption due to: Depletion (most important, all will run out at some point), wars, natural disasters, price fluctuations, piracy, protests, pollical relations (second important, threat is high, hardly ever happens), LEDCs
• Russian Gas: Gazprom is the major key player. In 2008 they shut up supplies to Ukraine over pay disputes. Large economic damage and even a few deaths.
• Extreme weather disasters e.g pipe leaks leading to domestic pathways being disrupted.
• Transboundary pathways are needed, choke points are narrow or difficult sections of the pathway where disruption occurs. Pirates raising price.
• Russia holds 25% of the world’s gas. Middle East 40%. Narrow ocean choke-points affecting oil flow.

Risks To Disruption:

• There is a real risk if oil and gas are disrupted

1. Soaring energy costs and rising energy poverty
2. Pressure on politics to act, possibly rationing energy
3. Civil disruption
4. Rising cost for industry, job losses and recession
5. Unsound decisions to rapidly develop alternative sources
6. Diplomatic conflict.

Unconventional FF Sources:

• Unconventional means newer and costly technology methods to access more complex reserves
• Unconventional resources includes: tar sands and oil shale
• Shale gas – gas trapped in shale rock that needs to be fracked (hydraulic fracturing of the rock)
• Deep water oil – oil reserves under the sea or ocean sediments which requires very long drilling rigs.

	Positives:	Negatives:
Canadian Tar Sands/Oil Shale (Oil)	Increases energy security	Sub-Arctic ecosystems destroyed
Lancashire Fracking (gas)	Creates 60,000 jobs in the UK	Groundwater pollution & small earthquakes
	Reduce dependence on Russian Gas	Increase carbon dioxide emissions
Gulf of the Mexico & Deepwater Drilling (oil)	Reduce biofuel and loss of Amazon	Leaks into marine ecosystems
	Billions into economy	Lots of deforestation to access the soil

Example:	Source:	Technical Challenge:	Environmental Impacts:
Canadian Tar Sands	Sands under trees forests that contain oil	MODERATE Opencast surface mining to dig out the sands, then gas used to heat and extract the oil.	HIGH Energy intensive extraction and destruction of ecosystems e.g water pollution
Lancashire Fracking	Shale rocks in Lancashire underground in places like Blackpool that contain gas.	MODERATE Populated areas and farmland affected, requires ‘enhanced extraction’ of gas	MODERATE Potentially gas could contaminate ground water and some fears over small earthquakes.
Gulf of Mexico & Deepwater Drilling	Oil in sediments under very deep ocean water	HIGH Difficult deep ocean conditions and access to oil	MODERATE Low impact when working well but spill occur e.g BP oil spill

Carbon Cycle - Energy Security

• Energy Security: Having enough accessible, reliable, affordable and safe energy supply to meet demand
• Evaluation: Vital for countries to allow them to develop and to support human wellbeing
• Why: Standard of living rising, industry increasing, transportation increasing, population increases, more energy to needed to them and consumption increases.
• If demand outstrips supply ‘energy security’ could result. Fossil fuels provide the most energy.

Consumption & Energy Mix:

• Consumption: How much energy is used by a country or business
• Energy Mix: Different types of energy that a country or place uses.
• UK: Russian gas, nuclear power from the French, electric energy e.g Gas coming from Russian to Easington.

Sources of UK Electricity:

• Gas – 44%, Nuclear 22%, Wind 12%, Coal 9%
• Gas usage is slowly decreasing, nuclear energy is rising
• Demand for coal and oil is decreasing by 2040. Demand is at its highest now, renewable increase as time goes on.

Consumption of Energy:

1. Physical Availability: Does the country have fossil fuels? The OPEC countries do, China have copious amounts of fossil fuels resources available. Norway has lots of rivers available for HEP. This is the most important reason.
2. Cost: How much does it cost per unit? Can profit be made from it? Cheapest always wins. Heavily influences what a country uses.
3. Technology & Development: Developed enough to invest in a large power stations. Important for energy mix
4. Public Perception: Germany have banned future nuclear power, UK moving to a more renewable energy source. How will America fair under Trump?

• Lots of areas distributing and investing in wind power such as Europe.

Energy Key Players:

1. Governments: Determines national energy mix, renewable policy, international reactions
2. Environmentalists: Greenpeace helping to determine/adopt renewable energy
3. OPEC: Global oil prices by managing production. Only works with OIL
4. Scientists: Conduct research into alternative fuels
5. Energy TNCs: Exploration for resources, fossil fuel drilling, pipe management.
6. Consumers: Prices sensitive, can put pressure on politics or riot like residents did in India.

Pathways, Energy Supply & The Future:

• Fossil fuels supply regions which are poorly matches with an area of largest demand, true for oil and gas
• Energy must flow away along ‘international pathways’ from production to consumers (transboundary pathways). Pathways are carrier ships. Electricity is exported. Can be disrupted. In the future, Oil will remain at $30 per unit whilst offshore wind will be at $140.

Carbon Cycle - Human Activity in the Carbon Cycle

Carbon Cycle Balance:

• The natural ‘greenhouse effect’ is how our atmosphere and ‘greenhouse gases’ trap heat from the sun
• Keeps the world warmer than it would be without natural greenhouse gases so the world average would be at least -18 0C (average now is around 15 0C).
• The main greenhouse gases are CO2 (carbon dioxide) and CH4 (methane).
• The greenhouse affect therefore heavily influences the patterns of temperature and precipitation around the world.
• Photosynthetic organisms (e.g. plants, phytoplankton) and soils help regulate the climate by helping control the atmospheric composition.
• However, humans have altered and tipped the balance of the carbon pathways and cycle.

Reasons For Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

1. Population growth: increases all reasons below
2. Transport: oil in USA for cars
3. Industry: China No1 for coal burning (for electricity)
4. Development: electricity generation as countries get richer
5. Agriculture: More cows and rice fields to meet demand emit methane gas
6. More energy use per capita (standard living improving)
7. Deforestation: releases carbon dioxide e.g. Amazon rainforest

Terrestrial Regulation Of The Atmosphere:

• The terrestrial biological stores include vegetation, soils and leaf litter
• Forests are the main ecosystem stores
• The climate effects the ecosystem carbon store size, and also the fluxes in the system

Carbon Nutrient Cycling Is Important For Soil Health:

1. Input: Nitrogen, carbon and minerals
2. Output: Lose of nutrients by leaching and runoff
3. Flows: Leafs and needles fall from biomass to litter and uptake of nutrients from the soil.

Summary:

• On a short-term timescale, the carbon cycle is naturally balanced (dynamic equilibrium).
• Photosynthesis and respiration from terrestrial ecosystems (vegetation and soils) balance.
• Oceans have the biological, carbonate and physical carbon pumps.
• Climates determine how ecosystem productivity varies, such as rainforest biomass carbon stores being largest, but deserts storing more carbon in soils
• Outgassing-from and diffusion-into the oceans roughly balances
• However, anthropogenic sources e.g. fossil fuels for CO2, methane from agriculture, have created a new large input.
• This increases atmospheric GHG levels, and fluxes slightly change as the system absorbs more CO2.
• The human enhanced greenhouse effect means that global climate, ecosystems, and hydrological cycle will change e.g. more storms, rainfall, droughts, forest fires, floods, migration etc.

Carbon Cycle - Biological Carbon Cycle

An Overview:

• Living organisms use Co2 for shells, woods, bones etc in the seas, the shells enter the deep ocean. Stores a lot of carbon in the deep ocean.
• Plants photosynthesise and ‘sequester’ carbon. Sequestration is taking up or storing carbon. Plants use carbon dioxide for structures like wood. Forests are the main store.
• Sediments in the ocean and soils on land also store carbon from decaying and decomposing.

Types Of Pumps:

• Phytoplankton are tiny organisms that use sunlight for energy

1. Biological Pumps: CO2 sequestered from the atmosphere into small green plants.
   1. Half the world’s biomass. 0.1% of carbon reaches deep oceans. It has a fast flux rate.
2. Carbonate Pump: Movement of carbon through ocean waters in small marine organisms that have shells.
   1. Carries carbon deep into the ocean as organisms sink when they die. They flow into the ocean due to the density of the water.
3. Physical Pump: Less than 10% of the ocean’s carbon dioxide in dissolved form.
   1. Moves from the ocean into the atmosphere.
      1. Cold water absorbs CO2 much better, tropical warm water has less CO2. Global warming will raise sea temperature and more carbon dioxide will flux from the ocean water to the atmosphere.

Carbon Exchanges:

• Living organisms like plants and phytoplankton sequesters carbon through photosynthesis
  • Releases a lot of carbon through respiration
• The exchanges also balance i.e the flux rate is very similar
• Occur on shorter timescales to some other fluxes e.g years for trees, days for phytoplankton.

Dead Organic Matter:

• Decomposed organic matter such as leaves, woods in soils are decomposed by decomposers such as warms which releases CO2 back into the atmosphere