Voting Behaviour - Models of Voting Behaviour

  • Judgemental Voting (rational choice voting): David Denver came up with the idea that voters will make a rational, logical decisions based on what is their best interests. Voters will usually be informed about the various options and will choose what is best for society as a whole.
  • Issue Voting: When voters place one issue above all others and cast their vote based on this issue.
  • Economic Issue: Bill Clinton said “It’s the economy stupid”: People want governing competency with the economy. They want a prosperous and successful economy. People want to see the economy doing well – hence votes for that party. In 2010 Gordan Brown was blamed for the credit crunch in 2008/09 which lead to him leaving office.
  • It's not the opposition that loses elections, it is the government who loses it” – due to performance if doing well then they get re-elected.
Factors Affecting Individual Voters:
  • Policies: Voters consider policies presented in manifestos and make decisions based off which are best
  • Key Issues: Parties focus on a clear message about one issue that will win them the election as voters are likely to vote for one issue
  • Performance In Office: If the economy does well parties get re-elected, if not then they’re out of office.
  • Leadership: Voters now think they’re voting for a Prime Minister rather than an MP, so leaders must now be likeable.
  • Image: Voters make choices based on the perception of the party image
  • Tactical Voting: Because of the first past the post system we have, if you know your party isn’t going to win, but you don’t want a certain party to win you vote for your second favourite.
Party Leaders:
Year:
Successful Party Leader:
Unsuccessful Party Leaders:
1964
Harold Wilson presented himself as the ‘man of the people’
Defeated former peer and aristocratic Sir Alex Douglas
1983
Margaret Thatcher, strong nationalist leader after winning the Falklands War
Defeated Michael Foot, considered scruffy. Wore the wrong jacket on Remembrance Sunday.
1992
John Major, calm and reassuring figure
Defeated, Neil Kinnock “Welsh windbag”
1997
Media savvy, Tony Blair
Defeated John Major who was considered weak
2010
Smartly presented and young David Cameron
Defeated ‘dithering’ Gordon Brown
2015
After 5 years of showing he was capable, Cameron ruined his PM legacy by calling an EU referendum if he was to win
Defeated Ed Miliband, poor media presence
2017
Austere and arrogant Theresa May who ran a poor campaign in 2017
Ideological Jeremy Corbyn suffered from party division.
  • Spatial Leadership: A style of leadership where the Prime Minister relies on his inner circle of advisers rather than the Cabinet to make decisions.
The Role Of The Party Leader:
  • Inspire party activities
  • Appear prime minister
  • Has positive media presence
  • Appear strong in leading the party and if elected, the nation