Tectonic Hazards - Predicting & Forecasting Hazards

  • No tectonic hazards can be predicted
  • Volcanoes show more signs of erupting and speed of onset is slower
  • Earthquakes happen quickly and show few signs
  • Tsunamis often happen after earthquakes so they can be easily predicted
  • Scientists play a huge role in prediction and forecasting, they often warn people to evacuate
  • Emergency planners are important in measuring impacts e.g Aid Workers to reduce deaths
  • Scientists cannot predict time or place even to within years. They can use hazard risks maps to estimate probability or a place even being hit by an Earthquake e.g in the next 5 years
Tsunami Predictions:
  • Caused by Earthquakes so we cannot predict the start of them
  • After an earthquake can track tsunami waves in the ocean (partial-perception)
  • Ocean monitoring stations called floats record pressure and how it changes
  • Computer models to create tsunami risk prediction maps
  • Warning is sent to everyone e.g Automatic text messages sent to everyone in Japan
Volcano Predictions:
  • Easiest to predict
  • However, we still cannot accurately predict them
  • Show most signs of activity and they have a longer speed of onset