US Elections - Congressional Elections

  • Class 1: 23 Democrats, 8 Republican – 2018
  • Class 2: 21 Republican, 12 Democrats – 2020
  • Class 3: 22 Republicans, 12 Democrats – 2022
When Do Congressional Elections Take Place:
  • HOR: Every 2 years
  • Senate: Every 6 years but 1/3 elected in classes every 6 years.
Constitutional Requirements:
  • HOR: Must be 25 and live in the USA for at least 7 years
  • Senate: Must be 30 and live in the USA for at least 9 years
How Do Incumbents Fair:
  • There is a high number of re-election for incumbents between 85-97%
  • The number had decreased but in recent years has increased back to the normal figure again
Why:
  • Providing Constituency Services: When you do something for one constituting, it means you have means and you can have the experience to represent lots of people.
  • Name Recognition: An incumbent has levels of seniority vs a challenger because of the vast amount of committees they are a part of.
  • More Funding: On average an incumbent has $12.8 million to spend on campaigning whilst a challenger has $1.8 million
What Is The Coattails Effect:
  • When an extremely popular candidate at the top of the electorate ticket carries candidates of lower office with him/her into office.
  • Has not happened much however in 2016, Trump helped many Republican senators get re-elected in states where they were facing defeats. 16 more seats were gained than what was predicted.
What Is Happening To Split-Ticket Voting:
  1. A state supporting candidates for POTUS but at the same election vote for a senator of a different party. In 2004, Nevada voted for a Republican POTUS but for a Democrat Senator. In 2016 however, the same state did not vote like this, this shows that partisanship is increasing across the USA.
  2. A congressional district voting supporting one POTUS candidate from one party but at the same election vote for a house party from another party. Straight-ticket voting is increasing. In 2016, Minnesota gave 62% of the vote to Trump whilst giving 54% of the vote to a Democratic senator.
What Are The Implications Of Fewer Competitive Districts:
  1. Much harder for party control of the house to change hands. In 2016 the Democrats needed 30 seats to take back control of the house but only 43 were competitive giving the Democrats a very slim chance of gaining control of the house again.
  2. Members who represent safe party are much more likely to vote in line with them than seeking deals with the opposing party. Sanford Bishop won the vote in Georgia 61% Democrat vs 39% Republican therefore it made sense for him to support the Democrat party line.
2 Reasons For The POTUS’s Party To Lose Seats:
  • If the POTUS has had a positive effect for his party in the POTUS election, 2 years later it is likely that his party will now devoid it and the party will do less well. In 2010 this happened
  • Voters now see mid-term elections as chance to express their disappointment or disapproval with the POTUS after 2 or 6 years in office. In 2006, voters expressed their disappointment with Bush’s failure to successfully conclude the military operation in Iraq.

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