A Level Revision Notes: US Elections - An Introduction to the Stages of the Election Cycle

When Do Presidential General Elections Occur:

Fixed term elections every 4 years
Even if the POTUS dies, there is no special election, the Vice President will simply take over and complete the term

Process Of A Presidential Election:
Stage:	Functions:	Occurs:
1) Invisible Primary	Candidates Announcement	Calendar year before the election
	Increasing Name Recognition
	Fundraising
	Intra-Party Debates
2) Primaries & Caucuses	Show popular support for candidates	January/February – June
2) Primaries & Caucuses	Choose delegates to attend national party conventions	January/February – June
3) Choosing Vice Presidential Candidate (s)	Presidential candidates announce choice of running mate	Some days/weeks before convention
4) National Party Conventions	Confirm presidential and vice-presidential candidates	Usually July/August lasting for four days
	Approve party platforms
	Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidates.
5) General Election Campaign	Campaign between the various candidates of various parties	September – 1^st week of November
6) Election Day	Registered voters go to the polls (although many may have participated in early voting)	Tuesday after the first Monday in November
7) Electoral College Voting	Electors vote in their states capitals to choose POTUS & VPOTUS	Monday after the second Wednesday in December.

Constitutional Requirements:

Must be a natural born American citizen
One must be at least 35 years old, Roosevelt was 42 but he wasn’t elected (previous POTUS was assassinated), the youngest elected POTUS was John Kennedy who was 43.
Must reside in the USA for at least 14 years.

Extra-Constitutional Requirements:

Not in the Constitution but seen to be “required”

Political Experience: It is said that to become POTUS you should have some form of political experience, this could be as a Congressmen or a governor. Trump is one of few POTUS who has no political experience.
Major Party Endorsement: Should be chosen as one of the two main parties candidates, independent candidates generally don’t do well.
Personal Characteristics: There is a greater chance of you becoming POTUS if you are a white male, and if you are married, so to avoid marital infidelity. Obama went past this as he was the USAs first black POTUS.
Ability To Raise Large Amounts Of Money: Hard to get the cash for a campaign, you have to be willing to spend lots of money for an unsuccessful campaign such as Clinton in 2016.
Oratorical Skills: Should look good and speak well on TV. Trump was seen as being good at the latter.
Sound And Relevant Policy: Yes, style over substance is needed but voters quickly learn about the polices so they need to be relevant and practical to the country.

5 TV Debate Examples Important To Voting Behaviour:

1960 – Nixon Vs Kennedy: America’s first TV debate. Radio listeners thought Nixon won as he sounded better but on TV, he was seen to be sweating and looked uncomfortable. Whilst, TV viewers thought Kennedy won due to his style over substance approach.
1984 – Reagan Vs Mondale: Reagan was not much older than Mondale but had the least amount of experience of the two. Upon the asking of his old age, he used his acting skills and made a joke about Mondale’s experience prompting laughter not only from the audience but from Mondale himself.
1988 – W Bush (Senior) Vs Dukakis: When the hard-hitting host asked Dukakis if he would oppose the death penalty if his wife was raped and murdered, he replied “No, I have always opposed the death penalty”. Prompting many to argue that the question was not fair to ask since it was an emotional response. But some argued that Dukakis’s answer was unusual as he said “no” when he should have ridiculed the host for asking such a question.
1992 - W Bush (Senior) Vs Clinton: Bush was asked a question from the audience on how the national debt was affecting him, he did not understand the question and got annoyed. Whereas, Clinton stood up, approached the audience and answered the question and how he was going to solve it.
2000 – W Bush (Junior) Vs Al Gore: The first split screen TV debate in America with TV cameras fixed on the two candidates, the nation could see every movement and sound made by the two candidates. Unfortunately, this did not work in Al Gore’s favour as he kept on sighing and groaning and American audiences across the nation did not like this.

What Is The Invisible Primary:

Period between candidates declaring an intention to run for presidency and the first primaries.
Candidates are chosen by ordinary voters, not much to see hence the term “invisible”
This stage is mainly played through the media as candidates hope to be mentioned as a serious candidate from news outlets.
There is a high connection between who wins the invisible primary and party nomination.

What Are Presidential Primaries & Caucuses:

Primary: A state-based election to choose party candidates. Shows support among ordinary voters.
Caucuses: A state-based meeting to choose a party candidate for presidency. They attract few people and turnout is low.
2 Functions: Show popularity of presidential candidates and to choose delegates to go the national party convention.
They run under state law.
You can have superdelegates who are congressmen who are free to vote for whoever they want whereas regular delegates vote under what the state voted.

What Happens On “Super Tuesday”:

A set Tuesday in February or March where a set number of states vote in primaries and caucuses.
Done to stop the south attempts to raise the profile of certain candidates
New Hampshire is the first.
Sets the tone for who could be a party nomination.

What Are Open & Closed Primaries:

Closed Primary: A primary in which any registered Democrats and Republicans members can vote in their own primary e.g Republican members can only vote in the Republican primary.
Open Primary: A primary in which any registered voters can vote in either party primary

What Are Proportional Primaries And Winner Takes All Primaries:

Proportional Primaries: Presidential primaries in which delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get
Most states set a threshold, which is minimum percentage of votes that a certain must receive in order to get any of that states delegates. This is usually 10-15%.
Winner-Takes-All Primaries: Presidential primaries permitted only by the Republicans, in which whoever gets the most votes win all that’s states delegates.
Whoever gets the most votes will win all the state delegates, e.g Trump won the Arizona Republican primary in 2016 and this meant that he received all 58 delegates.

What Is The Incumbency Effect & Does It Always Apply:

Incumbent: A person who currently holds an office, in this case, an elective office. They can benefit from an advantage often called the 'incumbency effect'.
Incumbent POTUS are usually re-elected by their party so there is no need for a primary such as Florida in 2012.
However, some POTUS's struggle with this due to opposition from within their own party therefore the primaries are more closely fought for example, Gerald Ford faced a strong challenge from Ronald Reagan (when he was governor)
When a primary is usually closely fought when an incumbent POTUS is in, it usually leads to them losing the general election. This is because the POTUS is now viewed as 'damaged goods' from not only within his own party but from the public.

Voter Turnout In Primaries:

Since the late 1960s, turnout has greatly increased this is partly down to more states holding more primaries.
In 2016 around 61 million people participated in the 37 primaries. This was only 29% of the total voting age population.
Turnout tends to decrease at a re-election but increases again when the incumbent POTUS leaves office at the end of his 8 year spell.
Turnout tends to be high in the first few states which hold primaries and tends to be low in the states that hold them last.
Turnout is generally low in states where a caucuses is held.

Factors Affecting Turnout In Primaries:

Demography: Stephen Wayne found that better educated and higher income as well as older members of the electorate are much more likely to vote than their less education and poorer people counterpart. For example, North Carolina's republican primary had ¾ of voters over the age of 45 with those earning more as well as being educated more whilst only 6% were 24 or younger.
Type Of Primary: Open primaries are more likely to attract a higher turnout. Especially true when only one party has a competitive race such as in 2012. In 2012, the republican closed primary only saw 2 states have an increase in turnout such as New York which went down 71%.
How Competitive The Nomination Race Is: In 2008 and 2016 when both parties had a competitive nomination race, turnout was significantly higher than in 2004 and 2012
Whether The Nomination Has Been Decided Or Not: Primaries held earlier than others are more likely to attract more voters whereas primaries held towards the end of the cycle tend to have the lowest turnout. Super Tuesday tends to bring a higher turnout as well which was seen in the 2008 republican primary where they were still undecided which brought 640,000 votes.

Positives & Weaknesses Of The New Nomination Process:
Positives:	Weaknesses:
Increased Participation: When the new nomination process arrived, the figure of voting increased in the millions to at least 35 million compared to 11.7 million in the old system	Widespread Voter Apathy & Boredom: In years when there is an incumbent POTUS, turnout is low, when there is no incumbent POTUS, turnout is high e.g Clinton.
Increased Choice: In 1968 there were only 5 candidates but this has increased to 22 in 2016	Voters Are Unrepresentative Of The Voting Age Population: Certain types of candidates, especially those who are more ideological candidates tend to do better in the nomination process such as Bernie Sanders.
Open To Outsiders: The process is opened to outsiders who tend not have political experience such as Jimmy Carter. The primary was the was only Donald Trump could get known in 2016	Process Is Far Too Long: Some argue that the process takes too much time and so, potential candidates do not announce they are running 60-40 days before the first New Hampshire Primary.
A Gruelling Race: An demanding test for a demanding job. Should have physical resilience as shown from Paul Tsongas who had cancer but a lighter schedule than this rivals.	Process Is Very Expensive: There is an argument that candidates need to raise a large of money to start their campaigns early. Clinton had raised $275 million by the start of the first primary.
	Process Is Too Dominated By The Media: With the introduction of intra-party debates both before and after the primaries with the media giving ratings to candidates before and after, this can hurt a potential candidates.
	Superdelegates: Can be weak as they go against the will of the electorate such as voting Clinton in 2016 when Sanders had won.

What Do Presidential Candidates Look For When Choosing A Vice Presidential Candidates:

Before the VP was announced during the party convention but in 1984, Walter Mondale broke with tradition and announced his before the party convention. This set a precedent and since then, all other candidates have followed suit
Balanced Ticket: A paring of presidential and vice-presidential candidates on a ticket who attract support for different reasons, thereby making the broadest appeal to voters. This could be either by geographical location or similarities in POTUS candidates such as Joe Biden who had served in the Senate along with Obama.
Potential In Government: Might choose depending on what they bring to the White House. Trump did this in 2016, as he chose someone (Mike Pence) who was more experienced than Trump in politics.
Party Unity: This is rarely used, but usually done to unite the party after the primary. Reagan did this after he won the primary but then chose H Bush (Senior) as his running mate. The problem with this is that the running mate may be incompatible politically.

Formal & Informal Functions Of The National Party Convention:

Formal:

Choosing The Party’s Presidential Candidate: In theory they should be chosen in a roll-call vote in which delegates announce which candidates they wish to vote for. However today, most delegates arrive to the NPC as ‘committed delegates’ as they know who they are going to vote for. To win you must get an absolute majority, if there no majority then a brokered convention occurs when delegates can vote for whoever they want.
Choosing The Party’s Vice Presidential Candidates: Before you would announce it at the NPC but you do it beforehand, therefore this convention has been lost since 1988
Deciding The Party Platform: The policy the presidential candidate will put in place if he wins. Decided under the direction of the Platform Committee who hold hearings across the country. Once this is done the National Party Committee agree to it and it is presented to delegates so they can decide on who to vote for.

Informal:

Promoting Party Unity: Seen as the most important function, as the primaries turn into bitter personal battles and party wounds are healed as divided parties generally do not do well. This had to be done in 2016 when Sanders and Clinton clashed, it was solved when Sanders endorsed Clinton.
Enthusing The Party Faithful: Vital that the party is faithful to the candidate in all 50 states, they need to organise meetings, phone calls etc. The NPC allows for an opportunity to enthuse the party’s faithful through speeches such as Michelle Obama speeches in 2016
Enthusing The Ordinary Voters: As ordinary voters are not in the NPC, this must be done in TV. This is done via the acceptance speech on the last night of the NPC. Since most voters pay little attention to the primaries, voters tend to tune into the NPC once candidates and policy has been chosen to see their first serious look at the party
Post-Convention ‘Bounce’: After the NPC, the polls instantly show the ratings of candidates to see how well they are doing. Bounce is the difference between the polls before the convention for candidates and after, the average bounce is usually 6%. In 2016, Trump scored well-below average bounce.

What Are Matching Funds, PACS & Super PACS:

Matching Funds: Between 1976-2008, campaigns were funded through federal money administered by the FEC and this is given to candidates as long as they meet certain criteria and agree to certain limitations. In 2008, Obama refused the matching funds which in effect left him free from following the criteria and as a result was able to spend more than his opponent. Then in 2012, both candidates refused matching funds which was the first time both refused. And then in 2014 Obama signed a bill removing matching funds.
PACs (Political Action Committee): A political committee that raises limited amounts of money and spends these contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates. They are independent expenditures on their own. They give money to candidates they support or spend money against they oppose. Most represent businesses groups or ideological groups.
Super PACs: A political committee that makes independent expenditures but does not make contributions to candidates. They spend money to achieve their desired objectives but they are forbidden from making direct contributions to a candidate.

How Significant Are TV Debates & What Are The Rules Of Thumb:

First debate was held in 1960 but first TV debate was held another 16 years later
The non-partisan commission are in charge of all debates, different formats are part of the debates and TV audiences were introduced in 1976. They occur between late September and mid-October.
Town hall style debates were also introduced where candidates face the audience sitting on bar stools. But then the split screen style was introduced and it has been kept ever since.
The only time a 3^rd candidate was allowed Ross Perot, in 1980, Carter did not turn up so it was two challengers vs Reagan. Reagan only showed up so he could debate Carter.

How Important Are The TV Debates:

One of the rarest times the candidates speak to voters without a filter. So generally, they are important.
Carter vs Reagan in 1980 was seen to change the voting behaviour of the electorate as candidates were asked to make closing statements. Carter made meaningful remarks but they were forgotten when Reagan asked voters rhetorical questions which he would be negative “Are America better off then they were 4 years ago?” And support fell for Carter paving the way for Reagan to win.
In 2016 when voters were asked if the debates were important after a record number watched the Trump vs Clinton debate, only 64% said they were important. Clinton got a narrow lead over Trump after the debate yet still lost the election which made people ask what the importance of them was.

Debate Rules Of Thumb:

Style Over Substance: Al Gore sighed which made popular primetime TV shows see the funny side, whilst Trump made abrasive tone, almost bordering on rude when he kept on shouting “No, you’re wrong”. “It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law of our country” “Because you’d be in jail” – Was seen as rude to Trump.
Verbal Gaffes: Saying something wrong can be costly, Carter said he and his 10-year-old daughter had spoken about nuclear weapons which prompted the papers to post comical pictures. Trump couldn’t accept what he would do if he lost but this wasn’t costly as his supporters were used to this
Sounds Bites: Many voters do not watch the full debate, they tend to look at the news the morning afterwards for the “highlights” e.g Obama vs Romney “..the social policy of the 1950s…”
Debates Are Difficult For Incumbents: Incumbents have a record to defend and they could have words thrown at them 4 years ago. They also start the campaign as the front runner hence expectations are higher of them. Incumbents go into debates rusty as they are not used to debating e.g Obama one appearance on TV debates since 2008 vs Romney 19 debates before the first TV debate.

What Are October Surprises:

An event occurring late in the presidential campaign to the disadvantage of one candidate leaving that candidate with little or time to recover before Election Day.
First seen in 1972 when Nixon announced the war was over in Vietnam and this went against McGovern’s anti-war campaign.
Most recently, Hurricane Sandy bought flooding to many states. Affecting the states Romney would win, this bought Obama an advantage.
And the investigation into Clinton’s emails was reopened just 9 days before the election which swung voters into Trump’s favour.

What Is Election Day Like:

Americans finally get to the polls on the Tuesday after the first Monday.
Many Americans have already voted, making the last few days of the campaigns less significant. If an October surprise happens within the last week of voting, it usually doesn’t make much of a huge difference because many have already voted.
Turnout peaked in 1960 election at 67% but turnout dropped in the next 5 elections to 54.7%. In 2008, turnout increased but this has gone back to 50% in recent years.
Results of the election are usually decided in the swing states who do not know as some states will always win Democrat and some will always vote Republican. Ohio has voted for the winner since 1964

What Difference Does The Incumbency Factor Make:

Only 9 incumbent POTUS have lost a re-election
Trying to defeat an incumbent POTUS is hard unless the party is divided. This was the case for Carter & H Bush (Senior)
Being an incumbent POTUS brings its advantages, as POTUS does not have spend much on the primaries compared to a challenger spending vast amounts of money just to win the nomination.
Significant that all incumbent POTUS who have lost, have lost in times when America’s economy was not doing well. Carter added insult to injury when his foreign policy was darkened when 52 Americans were held hostage in Iran.
Challengers face an uphill battle as they are battling when an incumbent of whom American knows
It is also worth noting that when a POTUS has to leave after his two terms, the opposition party usually wins the election. The only time this has not happened was in 1877 and 1990. Clinton should have known the election was lost before she even began!